Euro faces headwinds as ECB cuts rates, Lagarde hits slightly dovish tone

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

The euro is facing some headwinds this afternoon, after the ECB cut interest rates again, while hinting at more easing ahead in its accompanying communications. There was no explicit forward guidance provided by president Lagarde, nor were we expecting any.

She did, however, strike a relatively dovish note during her press conference, saying that the Euro Area economy had been weaker-than-expected and that there were more downside risks to inflation than there were upside ones.

The ECB is not currently in the business of pre-committing to a rate path, with Lagarde again emphasising a meeting-by-meeting approach. That said, her comments on inflation, which appear to portray greater confidence on achieving the 2% target, and the bank’s apparent concerns over the growth outlook, which has clearly deteriorated since the summer, point to further rate cuts by year-end. Indeed, markets are now almost fully pricing in an additional four cuts in each of the next four ECB meetings through to April.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

GBP/USD hits fresh three-month highs above 1.3550

GBP/USD stretches north and refreshes three-month highs above 1.3500 in the European session on Monday. The prevalent US Dollar selling bias favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.

EUR/USD extends gains above 1.1600 on USD weakness

EUR/USD extends its advance above 1.1600 in European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar resumes its downside amid weaker-than-expected US economic data, shifting Fed expectations and fading geopolitical risk premium.

Gold looks to build strength above $4,400 amid fading Fed hike bets

Gold builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood and attracts some follow-through buyers at the start of a new week. The commodity is now looking to extend momentum above the $4,400 mark, though it remains below the highest level since June 5, touched last Thursday, amid mixed fundamental cues.

Pepe defends a key support amid mixed retail demand

Pepe is up nearly 2% after a 10% decline last week, showing signs of a mild recovery, while broader crypto market risk appetite remains weak. PEPE derivatives data point to a mixed outlook, as Open Interest declines while funding rates turn positive. Technically, PEPE must hold above its $0.00000255 support floor to avoid a downside of over 10%.

Why the Fed replaced the Treasury buyers who left

When Japan moved to defend the Yen, the arrangement that drew the attention was the Federal Reserve's repo facility for foreign monetary authorities, which lets an approved foreign central bank raise dollars by temporarily handing Treasuries to the Fed rather than selling them into the market. The logic was elegant. Japan gets dollars, the Treasury market avoids a forced seller, and American long rates are spared. Coverage treated it as the mechanism that made the intervention work.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.