EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar resumes its advance on war, employment

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1590

• Financial markets depend on the Iran war headlines for direction.
• US Dollar extends its advance in the American session after mixed employment data.
• EUR/USD resumes its decline and aims to pierce the weekly low.

The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone on Thursday, as the escalation of the Middle East war pushes investors into safety. The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.1590, down on the day, albeit still holding within weekly limits, as the USD gains are moderated. Disruptions in supply pushed Oil prices back higher, although headlines suggesting the Strait of Hormuz is not closed helped contain fears.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) published the Accounts, which showed that policy makers are relatively confident about the inflation trend, highlighting, however, the persistent uncertainty. “Most members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as two-sided and saw the distribution of risks around the baseline as relatively unchanged.”

The United States (US) released employment-related data. On the one hand, the Challenger Job Cuts report showed US-based employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, down 55% from the 108,435 job cuts in January. It is the fifth-highest January-February total since 2009. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 28 rose by 213K, matching the previous 212K but below the 215K expected. Finally, Nonfarm Productivity in Q4 2025 was up 2.8%, worsening from the previous 5.2%. Unit Labor Cost in the same period rose 2.8% vs the -1.8% posted in Q3.

There’s nothing else in the docket, but words from policymakers from the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which are unlikely to introduce much noise. War-related headlines are likely to continue leading financial markets.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades below 1.1600, and the near-term bias is bearish as the pair holds below the 20-, 100- and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter averages already trending lower beneath the longer one. This alignment underlines persistent selling pressure, while the 14-period Momentum indicator remains below 0, showing only a modest contraction in downside speed. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads lower in the low 30s after recovering from oversold territory, signaling additional slides ahead.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 20-period SMA near 1.1635, with the 100-period SMA around 1.1784 and the 200-period SMA close to 1.1805 reinforcing an upper supply band. As long as price trades beneath this cluster, rallies are likely to face selling interest. On the downside, initial support sits at the recent low around 1.1570, and a clear break below this level would open the way toward the next bearish objective near 1.1530 on the 4-hour horizon.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD is bearish, as spot has slid below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1791 and is currently a handful of pips below the rising 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered just above 1.16. This break from the previous consolidation zone signals that sellers have gained control after the failed attempt to sustain prices above 1.19. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has turned negative and extends lower, reinforcing building downside pressure, while the RSI indicator holds near 33, close to oversold territory but still aligned with a downward phase rather than signaling a firm reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)