EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sellers return as Iran war escalates

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1534

• Demand for the US Dollar and Oil resurged amid renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• United States data resulted upbeat, further fueling US Dollar demand.
• EUR/USD gains bearish traction and is poised to test the 1.1470 support area.

The EUR/USD pair is under renewed selling pressure on Thursday, trading around 1.1530 early in the American session. The escalation of the Middle East war led to fresh fears, which in turn pushed Oil prices and the US Dollar (USD) up. The dominance of the Strait of Hormuz seems to be the main issue at the moment. Different reports claim Iran has placed several mines in the Strait and attacked tankers trying to go through the area.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that, despite President Trump's comments, the US Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the area, adding it would likely be by the end of the month. Additionally, Iraq reportedly suspended oil operations after two tankers were hit in its waters. Finally, back-and-forth attacks in the Persian Gulf continue, with no signs of a de-escalation in the near future.

Data-wise, the US published the January Goods and Services Trade Balance, which posted a deficit of $ 54.5 billion, improving from the previous $-72.9 billion. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 7 printed at 213K, better than the 215K expected and slightly below the previously revised 214K.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows that EUR/USD trades with a mildly bearish bias, as price holds below the gently descending 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains well under the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs, which continue to trend lower and cap the broader tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads south at around 38, while the Momentum indicator sits in negative territory and has deteriorated in recent candles, together pointing to fading buying interest and renewed downside pressure.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 20-period SMA around 1.1590, with a break above this barrier exposing the 1.1660 area as the next upside hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen near the recent lows at 1.1515, where a clear violation would open the way toward the 1.1470 region as the next bearish target zone. As long as EUR/USD trades beneath the short-term average and fails to reclaim 1.1590, recovery attempts are expected to face selling into strength.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD is also bearish as spot holds below all its moving averages. The 20-day SMA gains downward traction, currently at around 1.1720 and stands just above the 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered around 1.1700, reinforcing a downside tilt in the broader daily structure. The 14-day RSI indicator maintains its downward slope near 30, while the Momentum indicator also aims firmly lower below its midline, confirming negative impulse and limiting the scope for a sustained rebound while these readings persist.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)