Dollar strength, ceasefire doubts knock Gold down
- Gold dipped as doubts over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire weighed on prices.
- A slightly weak dollar is propping up gold, but gains are capped by the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate outlook.
- Geopolitical headlines and shifting Fed rate expectations are steering gold's price action.
- U.S. consumer prices jumped in March at the fastest pace in nearly four years—fueled by higher oil from the war and tariff pass-through—keeping inflation persistently high, which limits central banks' ability to cut rates and dents gold's appeal as a non-yielding hedge.
- Chinese premiums narrowed sharply as retail demand softened and expectations of quota loosening grew, while the Chinese Central bank kept gold purchases unchanged for a 17th consecutive month.
- Crude prices fell this week after recently spiking toward $117.65 a barrel, hovering around $100 per barrel.
Spot gold modestly declined 0.06% to $4,762.21 an ounce by 13:01 ET (17:01 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.61% to $4,787.50 an ounce.
Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but higher rates favor yield-bearing assets and a stronger dollar makes bullion costlier for foreign buyers.
CME FedWatch:
Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75
· CME FedWatch April no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 98.40% now from 86.2% on March 10, 2026.
Fed rate probability
As of March 20, 2026
As of Today
· CME FedWatch latest Fed rate probability points at no rate cut until mid-2027. What a change!!!
Technical analysis perspective:
Gold / US Dollar:
· Spot gold rebounded from a four-month low of $4,099 on March 23, 2026, sparking a relief rally that eased oversold technicals.
· Prices are clustered near horizontal resistance at $4,765–$4,870, the zone that triggered March’s sell-off.
· A break below that resistance could usher in renewed selling toward $4,530–$4,525.
· Alternatively, prices may consolidate between $4,765–$4,870 before resuming a decline.
Gold daily chart:
Author
Ali Merchant, CMT
TwT Learning
Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management, He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & opti
