CEE: Retail Sales growth remains solid

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Average real wage in industry in Slovakia increased by 2.1% y/y in July.
Current account deficit reached CZK -34.17 billion in Czechia and PLN -2419 million in Poland in July.
In Poland trade deficit was at PLN -1843 million in July.
Today, industrial output growth in July in Romania will be released at 8 AM CET.
In Slovakia, Poland and Croatia, August inflation structure will be released throughout a day.
Romania publishes year-to-date current account data while Poland year-to-date budget balance.

Economic developments

Retail sales developments point to resilient household demand in general. In the first half of 2026, retail sales growth remained relatively solid across most of CEE. Growth averaged around 4–5% y/y in Poland, Hungary and Czechia, while Croatia recorded a more moderate increase of around 2%. While Serbia was a notable exception, with growth close to 7% y/y in the first half of the year, Slovakia’s retail sales growth mostly stagnated on average, while retail sales declined in Romania. Looking at the start of the second half of the year, we see that July brought an acceleration in retail sales growth in several countries. Growth strengthened to almost 5% y/y in Czechia and Hungary, Croatia accelerated to around 3.6% y/y, while in Serbia growth reached as much as 8% y/y. In Romania, July did not bring a reversal of the negative trend, which is consistent with weak household demand amid fiscal consolidation and pressure on real disposable income. In Slovakia, retail sales growth also declined in year-on-year terms, reflecting negative real wage growth in the second quarter of 2026.

Market movements

FX and bond markets remain under pressure in the region, reflecting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about the Fed decision due on Wednesday. CEE currencies weakened at the beginning of the week, with EURHUF moving up to 366 and EURPLN touching 4.34. Long-term yields went up more visibly in Poland as well, rising by about 10 basis points on Monday. Further, in Poland, the Fiscal Council warned that the 2027 draft budget entrenches a deep imbalance and creates a very high risk that public debt will breach the 55%-of-GDP threshold in 2027 set in Public Finance Act that will trigger consolidation measures. In Romania, President Dan plans party consultations this week in order to name a prime minister candidate. This will be the third attempt to resolve the political tensions in Romania.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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