|

Car registrations up in most of the region

On the radar

  • Retail sales in Poland grew by 3.3% y/y in September.
  • Today, unemployment rate is due in Poland

Economic developments

New passenger car registrations in the EU increased by 5.7% year-on-year in January–September 2026, reflecting continued recovery in the European automotive market. Further, the transition towards electric mobility continues, with battery-electric vehicles accounting for 22.7% of EU new car registrations in January–September 2026. As for developments across CEE: Slovenia recorded the strongest growth, with registrations rising by almost 19%, followed by Hungary (+13%) and Portugal (+10%). Croatia also posted solid growth of around 4%, while Czechia recorded a more modest increase of approximately 2.5%. In contrast, Romania and Slovakia significantly underperformed the EU average, with registrations declining by almost 11% and 5.5%, respectively. The recovery in automotive demand remains uneven across the region, reflecting differences in household purchasing power, consumer confidence and broader domestic economic conditions that are affected by local policies (fiscal consolidation in Romania, in particular).

Market movements

CEE currencies have weakened on Thursday across the region with EURHUF moving toward 365 and EUROLN back at 4.37. Long term yields have increased since the beginning of the week. As for global developments, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week. It was the sixth consecutive week that claims remained at or below the 200,000 mark. Locally, in Czechia, the members of parliament approved the headline parameters of the 2027 state budget in first reading with 93 coalition votes, keeping the deficit at CZK 386bn. In Poland, the parliament passed the PIT reform and approved offsetting revenue measures — a roughly 15% rise in alcohol excise, a sharply higher sugar levy, and VAT at 23% on selected products.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

More from Erste Bank Research Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold stalls recovery from three-month low as Fed hike bets and USD uptick cap gains

Gold struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday bounce from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set during the Asian session, and sticks to a negative tone for the second straight day. The Federal Reserve recently signaled that there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rebound modestly on Friday after correcting and testing their key support zone the previous day. BTC holds the 50-day EMA, ETH finds support around the 100-day EMA, while XRP holds the horizontal floor near $1.300. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests a recovery if this critical support zone holds; a decisive close below these levels suggests a deeper correction.

The week ahead – UK budget, Shell, BP and HSBC and NatWest results
Financial markets have undergone another turbulent week with concerns about public sector debt levels, the impact of energy policy and higher oil and gas prices, and what events in France might mean for the UK economy going forward.
What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.