CAD/PKR seasonality – Is there a pattern worth exploring?
The Canadian dollar-to-Pakistani rupee exchange rate shows recurring seasonal tendencies — but the signal is moderate, not dominant. Using State Bank of Pakistan monthly averages from 1957 through March 2026, the clearest patterns emerge in recent 10- to 20-year windows:
- April through July tends to favor higher CAD/PKR.
- October through November marks the softest stretch.
- Monthly volatility (~2.5% standard deviation) exceeds the seasonal effect.
The practical reading is that seasonality can improve timing, but it won't overrule a sharp move in oil prices, Pakistan's balance of payments, or broad USD strength.
What does the historical data show?
The 20-year and 10-year samples tell a consistent story. Spring into summer has been the strongest recurring window for CAD/PKR, while late autumn underperforms.
Month | 20-year avg. change | 10-year avg. change | % positive (20yr) |
April | +1.44% | +1.82% | 70% |
June | +1.56% | +2.76% | 70% |
July | +1.42% | +1.93% | 65% |
September | +0.94% | +0.68% | 70% |
October | −0.59% | −1.26% | 45% |
November | −0.35% | −0.18% | 30% |
The latest monthly average sits at 203.91 PKR per CAD for March 2026, down from 205.02 in February and up from 199.77 in November 2025.
Also, a common mistake is treating seasonality as a standalone forecast. The seasonal edge amounts to roughly 0.5% to 1.5% in ordinary months — meaningful, but smaller than the pair's typical monthly swings.
When macro conditions contradict the calendar (think…rupee under reserve stress or CAD weakening on oil), the seasonal bias gets overwhelmed.
Why does CAD/PKR seasonality exist?
The cross rate reflects two moving parts:
- CAD versus USD.
- PKR versus USD.
Seasonality on both sides contributes to the pattern.
Canadian side
The story that "CAD is just oil" oversimplifies. Bank of Canada research found CAD's oil-linked correlation sits around 0.4 with Brent and WTI — material, but far from deterministic.
Commodity sensitivity explains only part of CAD's variation; global risk appetite, relative interest rates, and trade flows fill in the rest.
Seasonal Canadian dynamics include:
- January production stoppages (especially autos) that temporarily weaken export data.
- Winter energy demand that supports natural gas and crude exports.
- Mid-year export rebounds as manufacturing normalizes.
Statistics Canada reported that merchandise exports in September 2025 rose 6.3% after an August decline, with gains across 9 of 11 product categories.
The Canadian side often strengthens when the early-year production lull fades (which tends to coincide with the April-July window).
Pakistan side
Pakistan's seasonal influence runs primarily through remittances and the import bill. SBP reported FY25 workers' remittances of $38.3 billion, up 26.6% from FY24, with June 2025 hitting $3.4 billion and July 2025 at $3.2 billion — both well above the FY25 monthly average of $2.52 billion.
Strong remittance months add foreign-currency liquidity and support PKR. Weak remittance months, or surges in energy and commodity imports, pressure it.
The import side can be lumpy. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported that the December 2025 trade deficit reached $3.84 billion, with LNG imports up 75.35% month-on-month.
A month like that can swamp any mild seasonal tendency and push PKR weaker — lifting CAD/PKR even if CAD itself isn't especially strong.
The bigger issue is timing alignment. CAD/PKR tends to rise most reliably when Canadian exports are rebounding and Pakistan's external account is under pressure. When remittances run hot and SBP reserves are improving, that Pakistan-side support can offset the Canadian seasonal.
What's the working seasonal calendar?
The cleaner signal appears in the recent floating-rate period. Here's how each window has tended to behave:
January to March
Mixed. Canada often sees seasonal industrial distortion in January (auto shutdowns), while winter energy demand supports exports. Q1 leans slightly positive on average, but March has been mildly negative in recent windows. The quarter is more transitional than directional.
April to July
The strongest recurring CAD/PKR window in historical data.
Over the last 20 years, April, June, and July rank among the best months, and the 10-year sample shows an even sharper June-July bias (+2.76% and +1.93%, respectively).
For anyone sending CAD to Pakistan, the calendar historically favors waiting until autumn rather than transacting in late spring.
August to September
Mildly favorable, though less forceful than late spring. September has been especially steady in the 20-year sample (75% positive months). The seasonal tailwind persists but weakens.
October to November
The weakest recurring period. October averages −0.59% over 20 years and −1.26% over 10 years. November is positive only 30% of the time.
For CAD buyers (students, immigrants, businesses paying suppliers), October-November has historically offered a better entry window — all else equal.
December
A transition month. The 10-year window shows December positive on average, but noise increases as end-of-year trade and reserve effects dominate.
How should senders and businesses use this?
The right approach treats seasonality as a timing filter, not a price guarantee.
For a Pakistani payer needing Canadian dollars (tuition, immigration fees, supplier invoices), the historical record suggests October-November often provides a better seasonal window than April-July.
For a CAD seller receiving funds from Canada, the opposite holds: late spring into summer has historically offered a somewhat firmer CAD/PKR rate.
Practical constraints
- Macro shocks (oil, USD strength, SBP policy) override the calendar.
- The seasonal edge is worth roughly 0.5% to 1.5% in ordinary months.
- Pakistan-specific events (reserve stress, import controls, financing news) can dominate any month.
Money transfer services like RemitBee allow Canadians to set rate alerts and monitor corridor-specific developments — useful for catching favorable windows without constant manual tracking.
When seasonality strengthens
The pattern becomes more reliable when macro conditions align:
Oil rising + Canadian exports stabilizing + Pakistan trade deficit widening → stronger seasonal effect
Remittances running hot + SBP reserves improving → Pakistan-side support offsets the calendar
When conditions conflict, the seasonal bias fades.
The bottom line
CAD/PKR seasonality exists, but it's moderate rather than dominant.
The most repeatable favorable window for higher CAD/PKR has been April through July, with October through November the softest patch. The underlying logic fits:
- Canada often gets support from seasonal exports and energy dynamics in spring/summer.
- Pakistan's side is shaped by remittance waves, reserve conditions, and import bill fluctuations.
Because monthly volatility (~2.5%) exceeds the seasonal effect, the calendar should inform timing decisions — not replace fundamental analysis.
For international money transfers on the CAD/PKR corridor, seasonality offers an edge worth roughly one percentage point in favorable months.
That's nothing, but it's not a guarantee either.
Author
Muhammad Uddin
RemitBee
Muhammad Uddin is a financial content writer with a focus on global markets, foreign exchange, and digital payments. He creates clear, research-driven content aimed at helping readers better understand market trends and financial topics.
