AUD/USD breaks channel support after weak jobs data: Is wave five lower next?

AUDUSD is one of the weakest currencies right now, and after a very disappointing Australian jobs report, the sell-off has picked up speed. Unemployment rose from 4.6% to 4.7%, while employment fell by 39K instead of rising, so the RBA does not have much room for higher rates.

On the 4H chart, the rebound from the October low looks corrective, with several overlaps. I see it as a wave 4 bounce that stopped just below the 0.7000 resistance. Price has now broken the lower line of the corrective channel I have been following, which suggests that wave 5 lower is in progress.

If that is the case, the next targets are below 0.6900 and then the 0.6860 to 0.6813 support area. That zone is also important on the daily chart, where the decline from the September high looks like a counter-trend wave C. This is where the whole correction could end.

For now, more short-term weakness is possible, especially if stocks stay in risk-off mode and tech keeps falling, which can weigh on commodity currencies. I will stay with this view as long as price stays below 0.7074. But once price reaches the support area, I will be looking for signs of a bottom, because the long-term picture from the 2025 lows still looks bullish.