After the Fed, BoE and BoJ are next

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA IronFX

Fed remains on hold and the USD takes a hit

The Fed remained on hold as was expected, yet the event weighed on the USD, while the market effect on US equities and gold’s price was immaterial and temporary. The number of Fed policymakers favoring a tighter monetary policy seems to be increasing as three policymakers dissented favouring a tightening, while Fed Chairman Warsh’s stance was not illuminating regarding the bank’s intentions. Today we highlight the release of the US GDP rate for Q2 and June’s PCE rates. A possible acceleration of the rates could lift the USD.

Pound traders focus on BoE’s interest rate decision

Across the pond, pound traders are expected to focus on the release of BoE’s interest rate decision. The bank is expected to keep rates unchanged today, and market expectations currently include a rate hike in September and marginally another in December, implying a hawkish predisposition. A hawkish tone could confirm the market’s expectations and thus provide some support for the sterling.

BoJ also expected to remain on hold

Also we highlight Japan’s BoJ interest rate decision. The bank is expected to remain on hold and proceed with a rate hike in the October meeting. With JPY against the ropes, some much-needed support could derive from a substantially hawkish tone by BoJ while a failure of the bank to sound convincingly hawkish may weigh on the Yen, which remains very low against the USD risking a market intervention by Japanese authorities.

Apple, Amazon next on the earnings calendar

As for US stock markets, Microsoft’s share price got a boost yesterday, as its earnings report revealed that its cloud sector showed revenue growth, signalling some returns from AI technology. On the contrary, Meta’s earnings report disappointed traders, weighing on its share price, as AI costs squeezed profit margins. Today we get Apple’s and Amazon’s earnings reports. Amazon traders focus on the AI CapEx figure, while Apple traders are to focus on iPhone revenue figures, the new pricing and the CEO transition that is nearing.

Other highlights for today

Today we get the GDP rates for Q2 of France, Germany, the Euro Zone and the Czech Republic, Switzerland’s KOF indicators, Euro Zone’s business climate and the US weekly initial jobless claims. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s Tokyo CPI for July, China’s NBS PMI figures for July and Australia’s PPI rates for Q2.

Charts to keep an eye out

GBP/USD rose above the 1.3300 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. The pair broke the downward trendline guiding it since the 16^th of July signaling an interruption of the downward motion. Hence we switch our bearish outlook for cable, in favour of a sideways motion bias for the time being, given also that the RSI indicator has risen to the reading of 50, implying that the market sentiment has now reached a relatively neutral stance. Should the bulls be in charge, GBP/USD may aim if not breach the 1.3510 (R1) resistance base. Should the bears take over, GBP/USD may break the 1.3300 (S1) line and aim for the 1.3155 (S2) level.

Nasdaq continued to drop almost reaching the 26870 (S1) support line. We maintain a bearish outlook for the index as long as the downward trendline continues to lead it. The RSI indicator, has neared the reading of 30, implying an intensifying bearish market sentiment which could drag the index’s price action even lower. Yet the price action has breached the lower Bollinger band, which caused a correction higher in today’s Asian session. Should the bears continue to lead the index we may see it breaking the 26870 (S1) support line aiming for the 25375 (S2) support level. For a bullish outlook the bar is high as we would require the index to break the prementioned downward trendline and continue to break the 28200 (R1) resistance line and start actively aiming for the 28675 (R2) resistance level.

Calendar follows

GBP/USD daily chart

Support: 1.3300 (S1), 1.3155 (S2), 1.3010 (S3).
Resistance: 1.3510 (R1), 1.3655 (R2), 1.3865 (R3).

US100 Cash daily chart

Support: 26870 (S1), 25375 (S2), 23965 (S3).
Resistance: 28200 (R1), 28675 (R2), 30770 (R3).

Author

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA

IronFX

Mr. Iosif joined IronFX in 2017 as part of the sales force. His high level of competence and expertise enabled him to climb up the company ladder quickly and move to the IronFX Strategy team as a Research Analyst. Mr.

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