XAU/USD: The price to end the year at $2,000 – ABN AMRO

Gold (XAU/USD) prices set a high earlier in the year, but have lost momentum since then. There is a divergence in drivers and strong, traditional relationships have broken down. Analysts at ABN AMRO are cautious on the outlook for Gold prices and keep their forecast at $2,000 per ounce for December 2024.

Gold loses upside momentum

“Gold prices this year were supported by: investors buying the Yellow Metal on the futures markets and in other forms; central banks forming Gold reserves; technical picture. The rally has lost momentum since the high of $2,450 that was set on 20 May 2024. Prices are already under the 50-DMA.”

“The important support zone is $2,220-2,275, where previous tops and bottoms are layered. Below that level, the next support zone is $2,115, where the 200-DMA comes in. If prices decline below the 200-DMA the long-term trend turns negative.”

“We remain cautious for the outlook for Gold prices: the trend in Gold prices is positive, but the momentum is declining; it is unusual for Gold prices to have positive relationships with the US dollar and 5yr and 10yr US real yields; there is no shortage in physical Gold. We keep our year-end forecast of $2,000 per ounce for now.”