XAU/USD outlook: Gold bounces from new 2026 low on profit-taking / reaction on Trump's comments

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Gold hit the lowest this year ($4100) after falling nearly 8% in the Asian session on Monday.

Persisting negative sentiment, which drove the price for 10% drop last week (the biggest weekly loss in decades) was additionally boosted by growing expectations of rate hikes as strong rise on oil prices fuels inflation in its domino-effect to global economies that keeps major central banks on high alert and makes the metal less attractive for investors.

Gold price fell about 20% from its all-time high of Jan 29 ($5598) and is on track for a record monthly loss in March.

Near term action shows bounce from the session low, where ascending 200DMA provided solid support, with oversold daily studies contributing to profit taking that lifted the price over $4 so far.

But the main driver of gold’s latest jump was the comment from President Trump about postponing military strikes on Iranian infrastructure which boosted optimism about potential de-escalation of the conflict that put the whole region in fire and threatening of huge consequences on global economy.

Recovery eyes key barrier at $4600 (Fibo 38.2% of $5419/$4100 / 100 DMA), violation of which would generate fresh bullish signal and expose net targets at $4759 (50% retracement) and $4800 (round figure).

However, developments on the fundamental side will remain as dominant factor and will be closely watched for fresh direction signal.

Res: 4536; 4600; 4684; 4759

Sup: 4410; 4343; 4223; 4163

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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