WTI: Supply shock keeps prices supported – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Rabobank notes WTI has retreated from the near $120 spike but remains underpinned by curtailed Gulf output and limited rerouting capacity. With SPR releases only partly offsetting lost flows, the bank projects WTI averages of $83/bbl, $80/bbl and $78/bbl for Q2–Q4 2026, and $72/bbl for 2027, as supply gradually normalizes.

US crude underpinned by outages

"We estimate that roughly 14 million b/d of supply have been stranded since the closure of Hormuz, with 5m b/d of Saudi oil supply able to shift to Yanbu on the Red Sea and 1.5m b/d of UAE oil to bypass the Strait and load at Fujairah."

"The G-7 countries, plus China, will almost certainly have to take action and release some barrels from their SPRs."

"The release of these barrels would cushion some of the blow but given the scale of the disruption, it would not be significant enough to offset a prolonged supply outage."

"Our WTI quarterly average estimates are $83/bbl, $80/bbl, and $78/bbl for Q2-Q3-Q4 of 2026 and $72/bbl for 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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