WTI Price Forecast: Trades above $75.50 on Iran uncertainty; 200-day SMA holds the key

WTI consolidates during the Asian session on Friday amid a combination of diverging forces.
US Vice President Vance cancels trip for Iran peace talks in Switzerland, fueling uncertainty.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases Oil supply concerns and caps the black liquid.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $72.80 region, or the lowest level since early March, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently trades just above mid-$75.00s, up 0.30% for the day, though it lacks bullish conviction.

US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, fueling uncertainty over the next phase of negotiations to end the conflict. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal, which turns out to be another factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. However, the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz releases stranded oil in the Middle East Gulf, keeping a lid on a further upside for the black liquid.

From a technical perspective, this week's breakdown and acceptance below the $83.00 mark, representing the lower end of a three-month-old trading range, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 31.77, hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is stretched but not yet capitulating. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero, near -1.46, hinting that bearish momentum is still in play.

Crude Oil prices, however, hold above the technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.83. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the said support before positioning for further losses. As long as spot prices defend this moving average, dips are likely to be tested rather than cleanly extended. That said, bulls may need a clear momentum turn in RSI and MACD before attempting a sustained rebound from current levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI daily chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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