WTI Price Forecast: Oil steadies near $63.50 with bullish bias
- WTI extends rebound for the third straight day on Tuesday, trading near $63.50.
- Supply risks from fresh attacks on Russian refineries keep the risk premium alive.
- Technical signals turn constructive, with RSI pointing higher and MACD marginally positive.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil continues its recovery on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive daily gain as supply risks stemming from fresh attacks on Russian refineries keep the risk premium intact. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $63.68, up nearly 1.0% on the day.
The recovery follows a successful defense of the $61.50 support base, where buyers stepped in last week to halt downside pressure. However, gains remain constrained by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.25, a dynamic ceiling that has repeatedly capped upside momentum over the past sessions.
From a technical perspective, a decisive break above the $65.00-64.80 resistance zone would be needed to confirm bullish continuation and expose the $66.00 handle next, with scope to extend toward $68.00 if momentum builds. On the downside, failure to sustain above the 21-day SMA could see renewed selling pressure, dragging prices back toward $61.50, with a breakdown exposing $60.00 psychological support.
Momentum signals are showing early signs of improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above the neutral 50 mark and is currently pointing upward, suggesting building bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flipped marginally positive, suggesting early signs of bullish momentum, though not yet strong enough to confirm a clear shift in trend.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
