WTI Price Forecast: Edges lower to near $74.50 with bearish bias intact below 100-day SMA
- WTI price drifts lower to near $74.50 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- A bearish bias in oil price remains intact below the key 100-day SMA.
- The first downside target to watch is $70.70; the immediate resistance level emerges at $80.60.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.50 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI declines on mixed US-Iran messages. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding a possible US-Iran ceasefire deal and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil stockpiles report later in the day.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had very productive talks with Iran. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim deal to reopen the critical waterway, with Washington aiming for a Wednesday announcement.
Iran’s state-owned Press TV reports that discussions with Oman have entered “a new phase” and aim to establish a “middle corridor” through the critical waterway.
Nonetheless, uncertainty in the Middle East remains high. According to Kpler, shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remained little changed on Tuesday compared to the previous day, Reuters reported.
Hopes of a breakthrough between the US and Iran, and the prospect of an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on the WTI price. On the other hand, renewed tensions in the Middle East could raise fears of oil supply disruption and boost crude oil prices.
Oil market looks through conflict risks as traders focus on endgame
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU observe that, despite lingering geopolitical tensions, “markets are trying their best to look through any potential re-ignition in the conflict towards the final destination – and perhaps rightly so.” They argue that this forward-looking stance helps explain why crude benchmarks have remained relatively contained even as headline risks persist.
Technical Analysis: WTI remains capped under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil remains under clear downside pressure, holding well below the Bollinger middle band / 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA, which together suggest the broader trend stays bearish and rallies are likely to be capped. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 43 is below the midline but off oversold territory, hinting at weak but stabilizing momentum rather than a decisive recovery.
On the downside, initial support level is located at the July 10 low of $70.70, followed by the lower Bollinger band near $70.35, where volatility-based demand could emerge on further declines. On the topside, the first notable resistance is the 20-day SMA clustered at the Bollinger middle band around $80.60; a daily close above this zone would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure. Beyond that, the 100-day SMA at $87.45 precedes the upper Bollinger band near $90.80, forming a higher resistance band that is likely to contain any extended rebound while price holds below it.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
