WTI Oi's decline stalls near $70.00 as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz muddies

WTI prices steady around $70 amid confusing reports regarding the US-Iran peace deal.
Washington and Tehran have agreed to cease hostilities, but the date of the next round of talks remains unclear.
Iranian authorities affirmed that the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Crude Oil prices are practically flat on Monday, with the price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel practically flat around the $70.00 level. The decline in Crude prices witnessed over the last few weeks stalled on Monday as a fresh exchange of attacks between the US and Iran and confusing messages about the status of the Strait of Hormuz have put investors on their toes.

WTI Oil prices have steadied on Monday, following a nearly 25% selloff over the last few weeks. News that the US and Iran agreed to stop last weekend’s reciprocal attacks, while reports about the resumption of the peace talks remain uncertain. Axios, citing US officials, reported that talks are scheduled for this week, but Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi affirmed that there is no current plan to meet the US technical teams.

Strait of Hormuz status remains unclear

Another point of friction is the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities said on Monday that the ships can sail freely through the waterway, provided they have clearance from Iranian authorities. Gharibabadi posted on X that Iran and Oman hold sovereignty over Hormuz and that they recently held a meeting to discuss issues related to traffic through the strait.

Meanwhile, the US CNN News Channel reported on Monday that the US Navy has elevated the level of alert for ships sailing through Hormuz to “significantly high” while the United Kingdom Maritime agency, UKMTO, raised its threat level to “substantial” following recent attacks on commercial vessels, according to Euronews.

WTI Oil prices depreciated by almost 25% over the previous three weeks, retracing most of the prior gains as progress in the US-Iran peace talks boosted hopes of a swift reopening of Hormuz. The decline seems to have taken a breather, with markets awaiting clarity on the peace deal, yet upside attempts remain limited so far.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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