WTI Oil holds gains above $102.00 with the US-Iran ceasefire on edge

WTI Oil pulled back from nearly three -week highs but remains above $102.00.
Uncertainty about the US-Iran ceasefire and the blockade of Hormuz are supporting Crude prices.
The EIA Crude Oil Stock Change report might increase Oil price volatility.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Crude Oil prices ease from recent highs on Wednesday but remain above the key $100 level, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) consolidating gains above $102.00 at the time of writing, as tensions between the US and Iran grow.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Tuesday that the US might launch an attack on Iran in the next two or three days if Tehran does not sign a peace deal, and Vice President JD Vance said that the US remains “locked and loaded” to restart the military campaign in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in turn, has warned of “surprises” if the US restarts military actions.

Meanwhile, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz nears its third month, with no plan to reopen it any time soon. This is strangling the global supply of Oil and other commodities such as gas or fertilizers.

On Tuesday, a report by the Association of Petroleum Industries revealed a net decline of 9.1 million barrels in US Oil stocks in the week of May 15, beating expectations of a 3,4 million drawdown, and following a 2.18 million decline in the previous week. These figures provided additional support for Oil prices ahead of the release of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change report, which is due later on Wednesday.

Economic Indicator

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of total petroleum industry.

Economic Indicator

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivates, and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact on worldwide economies, affecting the most, commodity related currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Despite it has a limited impact among currencies, this report tends to affect the price of oil itself, and, therefore, had a more notorious impact on WTI crude futures.

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3550 after UK CPI data

GBP/USD holds recovery near 1.3550 in European trading hours on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation picked up to 2.9% in July, meeting estimates, while core CPI rose by 2.6% YoY in July versus 2.5% expected. Mixed UK inflation data failed to provide any impetus to the British Pound.

EUR/USD advances to 1.1600 as USD slips ahead of Fed Minutes

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Gold climbs back above $4,350 as USD remains depressed ahead of FOMC Minutes

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Shiba Inu's recovery hinges on key support

Shiba Inu recovers slightly, trading at $0.0000044, after finding support around the critical level earlier this week. The dog-themed meme coin shows improving sentiment as social dominance rises, funding rates turn positive, and bullish traders increase their long positions. On the technical side, SHIB suggests a potential recovery if it holds above the key $0.0000043 level.

Minutes of the July FOMC meeting serves as one of today’s economic highlights

Bear steepening turned into bear flattening in Europe yesterday. Daily changes on the German yield curve ranged between +2.4 bps (30-yr) and +5 bps (2-yr). EU swap rates added 0.9 bps (30-yr) to 4.5 bps (2-yr). The US/Iran stalemate and higher energy prices offer a first explanation.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.