WTI Oil holds gains above $102.00 with the US-Iran ceasefire on edge

WTI Oil pulled back from nearly three -week highs but remains above $102.00.
Uncertainty about the US-Iran ceasefire and the blockade of Hormuz are supporting Crude prices.
The EIA Crude Oil Stock Change report might increase Oil price volatility.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Crude Oil prices ease from recent highs on Wednesday but remain above the key $100 level, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) consolidating gains above $102.00 at the time of writing, as tensions between the US and Iran grow.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Tuesday that the US might launch an attack on Iran in the next two or three days if Tehran does not sign a peace deal, and Vice President JD Vance said that the US remains “locked and loaded” to restart the military campaign in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in turn, has warned of “surprises” if the US restarts military actions.

Meanwhile, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz nears its third month, with no plan to reopen it any time soon. This is strangling the global supply of Oil and other commodities such as gas or fertilizers.

On Tuesday, a report by the Association of Petroleum Industries revealed a net decline of 9.1 million barrels in US Oil stocks in the week of May 15, beating expectations of a 3,4 million drawdown, and following a 2.18 million decline in the previous week. These figures provided additional support for Oil prices ahead of the release of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change report, which is due later on Wednesday.

Economic Indicator

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of total petroleum industry.

Economic Indicator

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivates, and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact on worldwide economies, affecting the most, commodity related currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Despite it has a limited impact among currencies, this report tends to affect the price of oil itself, and, therefore, had a more notorious impact on WTI crude futures.

GBP/USD clings to daily gains near 1.3350

GBP/USD holds just in positive territory around 1.3350 on Friday as the Greenback keeps a vacillating price action. With Fed rate hike expectations easing and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, Cable remains on track to post solid weekly gains.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.1440

EUR/USD holds on to its recent gains and consolidates around 1.1440 at the end of the week as the US Dollar lacks clear direction. In the meantime, trading conditions remain subdued, with volatility constrained by the closure of US markets for the Independence Day holiday.

Gold flirts with two-week highs, targets $4,200

Gold extends its recovery for a third straight day, advancing toward the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal looks set to snap a four-week losing streak as softer-than-expected June US NFP data prompt investors to scale back expectations of further Fed tightening.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP advance amid renewed capital inflows

Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, holding above the $61,000 mark at the time of writing on Friday. Major altcoins such as Ethereum and Ripple are also posting gains, signaling a modest uptick in market sentiment and renewed risk appetite among investors.

The Iran war failed to trigger a recession. Can the US economy keep defying expectations?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.