WTI Oil holds gains above $102.00 with the US-Iran ceasefire on edge

WTI Oil pulled back from nearly three -week highs but remains above $102.00.
Uncertainty about the US-Iran ceasefire and the blockade of Hormuz are supporting Crude prices.
The EIA Crude Oil Stock Change report might increase Oil price volatility.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Crude Oil prices ease from recent highs on Wednesday but remain above the key $100 level, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) consolidating gains above $102.00 at the time of writing, as tensions between the US and Iran grow.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Tuesday that the US might launch an attack on Iran in the next two or three days if Tehran does not sign a peace deal, and Vice President JD Vance said that the US remains “locked and loaded” to restart the military campaign in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in turn, has warned of “surprises” if the US restarts military actions.

Meanwhile, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz nears its third month, with no plan to reopen it any time soon. This is strangling the global supply of Oil and other commodities such as gas or fertilizers.

On Tuesday, a report by the Association of Petroleum Industries revealed a net decline of 9.1 million barrels in US Oil stocks in the week of May 15, beating expectations of a 3,4 million drawdown, and following a 2.18 million decline in the previous week. These figures provided additional support for Oil prices ahead of the release of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change report, which is due later on Wednesday.

Economic Indicator

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of total petroleum industry.

Economic Indicator

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivates, and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact on worldwide economies, affecting the most, commodity related currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Despite it has a limited impact among currencies, this report tends to affect the price of oil itself, and, therefore, had a more notorious impact on WTI crude futures.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP gains reinforce bullish outlook

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly recovering on Friday, led by Bitcoin moving above $86,000. Ethereum has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, rising above $2,700 while the immediate area at $2,800 caps upside. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers near $1.54.

Week ahead – Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

Energy crisis and soaring bond yields to stay in driver’s seat in quiet week. Fed minutes eyed after drop in October rate hike bets. ISM services PMI and Treasury auctions to be watched too. Canadian employment, Japanese wages and ECB minutes also on tap.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.