WTI Oil dips to fresh three-month lows sub-$74 amid Middle East peace hopes

WTI Oil dips to three-month lows below $74.00, on track for a 10% weekly decline.
Hopes of a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are weighing heavily on prices.
The EIA reported the tenth consecutive weekly decline in Oil inventories and warned that reserves are at 40-year lows.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Crude Oil prices drift lower on Thursday, weighed by hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz. The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel hit a three-month low of $73.36 on Thursday, on track for a more than 10% weekly decline.

The US President Donald Trump signed a peace agreement with Tehran in the Palace of Versailles, in France, on Wednesday, and US officials disclosed details of the deal. Safe, toll-free passage through Hormuz has been included in the agreement, in exchange for waivers of sanctions on Iranian Oil, the release of frozen funds from the Islamic Republic, and a USD 300 billion reconstruction fund for war damages.

The Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed earlier on Thursday that talks between US and Iranian representatives will continue on Friday at the Bürgenstock resort, where they are expected to start negotiations to implement the agreement.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed that commercial crude inventories continue to fall rapidly. Oil stockpiles declined by 8.26 million barrels in the week of June 12, nearly twice the 4.6 million-barrel drawdown expected. The EIA warned that these figures confirm the tenth consecutive weekly decline, leaving Oil stockpiles at their lowest levels in more than 40 years. The market, however, did not react to this news, as optimism about the peace deal is offsetting concerns about an Oil shortage.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

AUD/USD hangs close to monthly lows, still defends 0.7100 ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD retains its negative bias for the third straight day, defending 0.7100 while trading close to a monthly low in Wednesday's Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar stands firm near a two-week high as the anticipated Fed rate hike and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to a multi-year high. Furthermore, escalating Middle East tensions benefit the safe-haven buck and weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie.

USD/JPY holds firm above 155.00, awaits Fed policy announcements

USD/JPY climbs to a fresh one-week high above 155.00 in the Asian session on Wednesday amid a bullish US Dollar. Oil-driven inflation fears, along with the anticipated Fed rate hike, continue to support surging US bond yields. Moreover, rising US-Iran tensions underpin the USD's reserve currency status. The pair, however, remains below the mid-155.00s as bulls seem hesitant ahead of the Fed decision later today and the BoJ meeting, starting on Thursday.

Gold bounces to $4,350; focus on the Fed

Gold sets aside two daily declines in a row, gathering some composure and revisiting the $4,350 zone per troy ounce amid decent gains midweek. The precious metal’s recovery comes despite an acceptable advance in the US Dollar and declining US Treasuty yields prior to the anticipated rate hike by the Fed.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP clings to 50-day EMA support after CLARITY Act setback

Ripple (XRP) trades lower around $1.28 on Wednesday, as investors broadly assess the impact of the failed United States (US) Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary decision. The remittance token has trimmed early-week gains that tagged highs around $1.50 on Monday and now holds key moving-average support.

Fed decision in focus

Starting with the most important, the Fed decision. Heading into the event, data showed a rather punchy US August jobs report, which, you will likely recall, triggered a hawkish Fed rate repricing in rates markets. However, the recent US August CPI print mattered more.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.