WTI Oil climbs above $82 as Washington-Tehran standoff reignites supply concerns

WTI gains 0.68% on Monday and trades around $82.10 at the time of writing.
The lack of negotiations between Washington and Tehran keeps concerns over Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz elevated.
Tensions in Lebanon and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries add to risks surrounding global supply.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil advances on Monday and trades around $82.10 at the time of writing, up 0.68% on the day. Oil prices remain supported by the deadlock between the United States (US) and Iran, which keeps concerns about Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz elevated.

Prospects for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain as talks between Washington and Tehran appear to have reached a standstill. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that no negotiations are currently taking place between the two countries and that the United States (US) must accept Iran's conditions for shipping to resume through the strategic waterway.

Tensions intensified further over the weekend. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on US President Donald Trump to “accept the reality of defeat,” after Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” The rhetoric reduces the prospects of a rapid de-escalation and helps maintain a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.

The Oil market is also monitoring developments in Lebanon following a renewed escalation in fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. A further deterioration in the conflict could heighten concerns about the stability of energy supplies in the Middle East and continue to support WTI.

Supply risks are not limited to the Middle East. Russia is facing fuel shortages after Ukraine resumed near-daily attacks on Russian Oil refineries. These disruptions add another source of uncertainty over the availability of energy products in the global market.

Traders now turn their attention to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly US Crude Oil inventory report, due on Tuesday. The data could provide fresh indications about the supply-demand balance in the world's largest Oil market.

WTI US Oil technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $82.08, holding a constructive near-term bias as it stays above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $81.53 and the 200-period SMA at $79.22. The reclaimed moving-average stack under price hints at a supportive backdrop, while the downwards resistance trend line coming in near $82.28 caps the immediate topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, keeping scope for further gains as long as intraday pullbacks remain contained above nearby support.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the descending trend line around $82.28, with further barriers at the horizontal level of $83.57 and then $84.60, where selling interest is likely to intensify. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-period SMA at $81.53, ahead of a more significant horizontal floor near $80.00; a deeper slide would expose the 200-period SMA at $79.22, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

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Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.