WTI inches lower to near $99.00 despite broadening Middle East conflict

WTI may rebound on supply risks as hopes for a quick Iran conflict resolution diminish.
Iran-backed Houthis struck Israel for the first time, widening the Middle East conflict.
Trump signaled a Cuba policy shift, allowing crude shipments as a sanctioned Russian tanker nears the island.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower after three days of gains, trading around $98.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. However, crude oil prices may recover on supply concerns as expectations for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict continue to fade.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen carried out their first strikes on Israel over the weekend, broadening the regional conflict. They warned that attacks will persist until operations against Iran and its allies end. The group also poses a threat to shipping through the Red Sea and to vital Saudi energy infrastructure, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) is reportedly preparing for a prolonged ground campaign in Iran, with thousands of troops being deployed to the region. President Donald Trump has also floated the idea of taking control of Iran’s oil resources, including its main export terminal on Kharg Island, in a move reminiscent of prior US actions in Venezuela.

On a separate front, Trump indicated a policy shift on Cuba, stating he does not oppose countries supplying crude oil to the island. This comes as a sanctioned Russian tanker nears Cuba carrying a critical shipment, offering some relief to an economy struggling under an effective US-led oil blockade.

The vessel, linked to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” has been tracked off Cuba’s eastern coast and is expected to dock soon, providing a much-needed boost to the country’s strained energy supplies, per Reuters.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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