Western Intelligence sees no credible signs of Russian de-escalation - Reuters

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

According to Reuters citing a Senior Western Intelligence official, there is no credible sign of Russian de-escalation. Russian military exercises are currently at their peak stage, the official warned, and the risk of a Russian attack on Ukraine will remain elevated for at least the rest of the month. The intelligence official said that the greatest risk of conflict or an unintended military accident was right now and that "I expect things to be really confusing and ambiguous for the next couple of weeks". The official warned the next stage of Russian military drills would be ballistic missile launches and that Russia could attack Ukraine with "essentially no, or little-to-no, warning".

Market Reaction

USD/RUB, the best proxy to watch to gauge how markets are feeling about Russia/Ukraine war risk, doesn't seem to have reacted to the latest reports from Reuters.

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

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