Western Intelligence sees no credible signs of Russian de-escalation - Reuters

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

According to Reuters citing a Senior Western Intelligence official, there is no credible sign of Russian de-escalation. Russian military exercises are currently at their peak stage, the official warned, and the risk of a Russian attack on Ukraine will remain elevated for at least the rest of the month. The intelligence official said that the greatest risk of conflict or an unintended military accident was right now and that "I expect things to be really confusing and ambiguous for the next couple of weeks". The official warned the next stage of Russian military drills would be ballistic missile launches and that Russia could attack Ukraine with "essentially no, or little-to-no, warning".

Market Reaction

USD/RUB, the best proxy to watch to gauge how markets are feeling about Russia/Ukraine war risk, doesn't seem to have reacted to the latest reports from Reuters.

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trims intraday gains, stays flat around 1.1630

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel on Monday. Investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's critical Fed policy meeting, allowing the pair to stay in a consolidation phase following two consecutive weeks of bullish action. US Dollar gains ground as risk aversion kicks in.

GBP/USD edges lower toward 1.3300 as markets turn cautious

GBP/USD corrects lower toward 1.3300 on Monday after posting gains in the previous week. The markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of the highly-anticipated Fed meeting, making it difficult for the pair to gather bullish momentum.

Gold remains seases below $4,200 as markets gear up for Fed

Gold turned south after Wall Street's opening, trading south of $4,200. The US Dollar finds additional legs on a souring mood on Monday as market participants prepare for the upcoming Fed meeting, which will provide key insights into the short-term policy outlook.

Bitcoin and Ethereum aim for breakouts as Ripple holds at $2

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record a minor recovery on Monday, starting the week on a positive note. The retail demand for major cryptocurrencies remains strong despite outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds.

The Silver disconnection is real

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.