We expect July to bring no changes in actual ECB policy - Rabobank

"We expect July to bring no changes in actual ECB policy; nor does it seem likely that the ECB will formally change their guidance at this juncture," said Rabobank Financial Research Team in a recent report.

Key quotes:

  • In order to prepare for an official decision on the future of the asset purchase program in autumn, the Council will likely use next week’s meeting to further shape the narrative
  • We remain convinced that the ECB will taper purchases, though we do not see inflation meet any of the ECB’s self-imposed criteria
  • Mr. Draghi will have to address this issue by further disconnecting the future of the asset purchases from the inflation outlook, probably by tying it more to the growth outlook

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