- USD/RUB fades bounce off two-year low, takes offers to renew intraday bottom of late.
- NATO’s Stoltenberg said that Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going as it planned.
- Finland, Sweden add to the geopolitical fears while bracing for NATO membership.
- US Retail Sales, Fedspeak and oil prices are the key catalysts to forecast near-term moves.
USD/RUB struggles to keep Friday’s rebound from the lowest levels since 2020 as the Russian ruble (RUB) pair drops back towards $65.15 heading into Monday’s European session.
In doing so, the quote struggles to justify the US dollar’s recent safe-haven demand, as well as softer oil prices. Also portraying the indecision of the USD/RUB traders are mixed concerns surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and the recent chatters of Finland and Sweden opting for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dribbles around a 20-year high, fails to extend Friday’s pullback. That said, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s 50 bps rate hike view joins the downbeat US Consumer Sentiment Index data to challenge the greenback buyers. However, the recent risk-off mood favors the greenback’s safe-haven demand.
Elsewhere, the WTI crude oil prices, Russia’s key export, snap a three-day uptrend as sellers dominate below $110.00, down 0.62% intraday by the press time. In addition to the firmer USD, recent headlines from Saudi Arabia also weigh on oil prices. Recently Saudi Arabia signaled to boost oil production capacity by the end of 2026-early 27.
On a different page, European Union’s Foreign Minister Borrell mentioned that they can't guarantee sanctions issues will be resolved immediately. The same may have helped the RUB to regain its upside momentum.
It’s worth noting that the Nato Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, said Russia’s offensive in Donbas had stalled and Ukraine could win the war, an outcome few military analysts predicted at the outset of the conflict, per The Guardian. The news also stated, “Finland on Sunday confirmed it would apply to join Nato, while Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats backed Nato membership, paving the way for an application and abandoning decades of neutrality.”
In a reaction to the same, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the global situation will change drastically after the Swedish decision to join NATO, per RIA news.
Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.70% intraday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields fall 4.2 basis points (bps) to 2.89% by the press time.
Moving on, USD/RUB traders should pay attention to the qualitative catalysts amid a light calendar ahead. Even so, the US Retail Sales for April will become important amid the recently mixed inflation figures.
Technical analysis
Although a two-month-old descending resistance line joins the 10-DMA to restrict short-term USD/RUB rebound to around $67.00, Friday’s Dragonfly Doji candlestick probes sellers until the quote stay beyond $62.83.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.