|

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Pulls back to major trendline, uptrend still intact

  • USD/JPY declines to a major trendline and finds support. 
  • It remains in an uptrend that could resume and push higher. 

USD/JPY has pulled back to support from a major trendline for the long-term uptrend at about 152.55. Despite the correction, the pair is in an uptrend on a short and medium-term basis and given the technical analysis dictum that “the trend is your friend” the odds still favor a recovery and eventual continuation higher.

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart 

A break above the 154.71 November 7 high would renew the uptrend and probably lead to a continuation up to resistance at 155.24, the July 30 high. A break above that would provide a stronger bullish signal and might lead to a target at 157.86 (July 19 high).  

Alternatively, a break below the trendline and then also below 151.29 might indicate a bearish reversal of the trend over the short-term. Such a move could follow-through lower to a target at 150.15 where support from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (not shown) kicks in. 

Author

Joaquin Monfort

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

More from Joaquin Monfort
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

Gold remains below $4,100 despite receding Fed hike bets, weak USD

Gold opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week amid receding Fed rate-hike expectations and a bearish US Dollar. Oil prices tumbled after Trump canceled an attack on Iran and said that a deal is near, easing inflation fears. This forces traders to dial back bets on extreme Fed tightening and drags the USD to a fresh low since June 17, which, in turn, is supporting the non-yielding bullion. However, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above $4,100 warrant caution for XAU/USD bulls.

Gold struggle with 21-day SMA extends ahead of US-Iran talks

Gold keeps its range around $4,050 early Monday, consolidating the previous decline. The US Dollar holds losses, fuelled by the USD/JPY slump and Mideast diplomacy hopes. Gold awaits a clear directional breakthrough, but sellers likely have the upper hand on the 1D chart.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

Bitcoin dips, Ethereum consolidates, XRP stalls

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple steadied on Monday after falling over 2.8%, 3.55% and 2.35%, respectively, the previous week. BTC trades below the key resistance level, ETH consolidates between the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.