USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears target 156.50 support zone amid sharp Yen appreciation
- USD/JPY attracts heavy selling for the second straight day amid a combination of negative factors.
- Intervention fears and a more hawkish BoJ repricing boost the JPY amid a broadly weaker USD.
- The technical setup favors bears and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
The USD/JPY pair remains under intense selling pressure for the second straight day and plummets to a nearly four-week low, around the 157.25-157.20 region during the early European session on Thursday.
Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities had conducted a rate check, which signals the possibility of an intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations provides a strong boost to the JPY. This, along with a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), is seen exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, Wednesday's failed attempt to conquer the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent decline favor bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is negative, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory, suggesting persistent downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Hence, some follow-through weakness below the 157.00 mark, towards testing the 156.60-156.50 horizontal support, looks like a distinct possibility. The downward trajectory could extend further toward challenging the August monthly swing low, around the 155.25-155.20 region, with some intermediate support near the 156.00 round figure.
On the topside, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers near 158.00, which should cap the USD/JPY pair near the 158.40-158.50 pivotal resistance. The momentum might then lift spot prices beyond 159.00, towards the 200-period SMA, around the 160.00 psychological mark. Acceptance above the latter would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and signal a more sustainable rebound.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | 0.33% | -1.73% | -0.60% | -0.09% | 1.17% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.53% | -1.52% | -0.41% | 0.10% | 1.32% | 0.38% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.53% | -2.14% | -0.93% | -0.43% | 0.79% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | 1.73% | 1.52% | 2.14% | 1.07% | 1.66% | 2.83% | 1.82% | |
| CAD | 0.60% | 0.41% | 0.93% | -1.07% | 0.52% | 1.75% | 0.70% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | -0.10% | 0.43% | -1.66% | -0.52% | 1.22% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | -1.17% | -1.32% | -0.79% | -2.83% | -1.75% | -1.22% | -1.02% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.38% | 0.24% | -1.82% | -0.70% | -0.19% | 1.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
