USD/CHF drops below 0.8800 on Middle East geopolitical tensions
- USD/CHF drifts lower to 0.8770 in Tuesday's early European session, down 0.19% on the day.
- The SNB is anticipated to cut its key policy rate by 25 bps on Thursday.
- Friday’s US employment data prompted the anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week.
The USD/CHF pair softens to around 0.8770 during the early European session on Tuesday. The uptick of the Swiss Franc (CHF) is bolstered by further turmoil in the Middle East, which boosts the safe-haven flows. The release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision will be the highlights for this week.
Turbulence in the Middle East increased over the weekend as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow and were granted political asylum, ending 50 years of a brutal dictatorship. The downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime could lead to a conflict involving regional countries, lifting the safe-haven currency like the CHF against the Greenback. “The government’s collapse in Syria could see haven demand flowing in,” said ANZ Group Holdings analysts.
The SNB is expected to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting on Thursday. According to a Reuters poll, over 85% of economists estimated the Swiss central bank would cut its main rate by 25 bps to 0.75% on Thursday. Christian Schulz, the deputy chief European economist at Citi, expected the SNB to downgrade its short-term forecasts again, adding, "The SNB's guidance will likely remain dovish”. This, in turn, might undermine the CHF and act as a tailwind for USD/CHF.
On the other hand, traders raised their bets for another US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the December meeting after the US employment report on Friday. Data released on Friday showed that US job growth rose in November, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% pointed to an easing labor market that should allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. Traders will keep an eye on the US inflation report on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
