USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 200-SMA on H4, around 1.3770-1.3775 amid mixed setup
- USD/CAD draws some support from a modest USD recovery, though bulls seem hesitant.
- Rebounding Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind for spot prices.
- The technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery.
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on an intraday uptick and trades around the 1.3770-1.3775 region, up less than 0.05% for the day heading into the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled a modest recovery from the 1.3730 area, or a three-week low, touched the previous day, though a combination of diverging forces warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
Despite the latest optimism over diplomatic efforts to resume US-Iran peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz remains a major point of contention amid the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports. This could jeopardise the already fragile ceasefire, which benefits the US Dollar's (USD) safe-haven status and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, an intraday bounce in Crude Oil prices from a three-week low underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and caps the upside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices showed some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March upswing. The lack of any meaningful buying interest, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/CAD pair's recent sharp pullback from the 1.3965 region, or a nearly four-month high set on March 31, has run its course or positioning for any meaningful appreciating move.
Meanwhile, spot prices remain capped beneath the 38.2% Fibo. retracement hurdle at 1.3798, which is followed by a stronger barrier at the 23.6% retracement near 1.3862, keeping the near-term tone neutral to slightly bearish. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index around 37 and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint that recovery attempts lack strong bullish momentum, suggesting that selling could re-emerge if the bounce extends.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3759, ahead of the 50.0% Fibo. level at 1.3746. A convincing break below these levels would expose the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3694, with deeper pullbacks potentially targeting the 78.6% level at 1.3619 and the prior swing low zone around 1.3525.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.00% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.06% | -0.04% | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.03% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.31% | -0.15% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.22% | -0.05% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.21% | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.24% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.05% | -0.18% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.09% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
