USD/CAD gains near 1.4000 as Oil prices drop, Fed rate cut bets ease

USD/CAD gains ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar struggles due to weaker Oil prices.
WTI price edges lower as the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 4.4 million barrels last week.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 49% odds for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CAD rebounds after registering 0.5% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.4000 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) comes under downward pressure amid lower crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price halts its four-day winning streak, slipping to near $60.40 per barrel at the time of writing.

Crude Oil prices weakened following another inventory build in the United States (US). The latest American Petroleum Institute (API) report showed US crude stocks rising by 4.4 million barrels last week, the third straight weekly increase and the largest in over five months. The data, along with the IEA’s projection of a record surplus in the coming year, reinforced worries that global supply may outstrip demand.

However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could receive support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy outlook. Canada’s core measures monitored by the BoC stayed close to the 3% mark in October. Moreover, firm labour data, unemployment at 6.9% and wage growth around 4%, underlying price pressures remain elevated, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance. Markets widely expect the BoC to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026.

The USD/CAD pair also draws support as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 49% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP nears critical $1.00 support

Ripple (XRP) remains pressured on Friday, trading around $1.03 at the time of writing. The token appears to hold this current level as support but lacks a catalyst to sustain a knee-jerk rebound toward the next key resistance at $1.10.

Is Gold about to enter its biggest bull run since 2020?

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history. A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.