USD/CAD: BoC cautious as CAD seen choppy – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities reports the Bank of Canada (BoC) left rates at 2.25% with a cautious tone, highlighting trade uncertainty and a soft labour market while modestly upgrading 2026 growth. The team expects no policy changes through 2026 and two hikes in 2027. They see front-end Canadian rates as too cheap and forecast USD/CAD trading choppily around current levels in Q2.

BoC on hold with conditional guidance

"The Bank of Canada held rates unchanged at 2.25% in April."

"The communique had a cautious tone, with the Bank downplaying positive growth impacts from higher energy prices and paying special attention to trade uncertainty and a soft labour market."

"Despite the Bank's apparent caution, growth forecasts for 2026 were nonetheless revised modestly higher, and in that sense to communique looks like it was implicitly designed to push back against hawkish expectations."

"We look for the Bank of Canada to stay on hold for all of 2026, with two hikes in 2027."

"We expect the USD/CAD to be choppy and trade around current levels through Q2."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation

We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.