US: Fed data watch shapes rate outlook – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights a busy US data calendar for the Dollar, with February PCE, March CPI and the University of Michigan survey guiding inflation expectations. The bank argues that if energy-driven price gains do not spill over, the Fed can look through the Oil shock, while FOMC minutes will clarify how high the bar is for a rate hike.

Inflation prints and FOMC minutes in focus

"The minutes of the FOMC March 17-18 meeting will be worth monitoring for signals on how high the hurdle is for a rate hike (Wednesday). Recall, at that meeting the FOMC delivered a hawkish hold and Fed Chair Jay Powell flagged that the “possibility that next move might be hike did come up” during the policy discussion. Worth noting that the swaps curve has virtually fully priced-out Fed rate hike bets since March 26, when close to 25bps of tightening was implied."

"February PCE will capture the pre-shock inflation and consumer spending backdrop (Thursday). Headline PCE is seen at 2.8% y/y for a second straight month, core PCE is expected to dip 0.1pts to 3.0% y/y, and real personal spending is forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% in January. For reference, at its March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC’s median 2026 projection for both headline and core PCE stood at 2.7%."

"March CPI will be the first inflation print since the war began (Friday). Headline inflation is poised to quicken sharply due to the surge in gasoline prices. Headline CPI is seen rising to a one-year high at 3.4% y/y vs. 2.4% in February and core CPI is expected to increase to a five-month high at 2.7% y/y vs. 2.5% in February."

"Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop."

"April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will offer a read on how well long-term inflation expectations are anchored. Consensus sees 5 to 10-year inflation expectations rise by 0.3pts to a six-month high at 3.5%, complicating the Fed’s effort to rein-in inflation back to its 2% goal. Today, the March New York Fed survey of consumer expectations takes the data spotlight (4:00pm London, 11:00am New York)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)