US EIA expects an oversupply, lower oil prices, and falling US oil production – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in contrast, has significantly revised its estimate of the supply surplus on the oil market upwards and now expects inventories to build by more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day

"This is 800,000 barrels per day more than it has previously forecast. For this reason, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to fall to an average of $58 per barrel in the fourth quarter and to an average of $50 per barrel at the beginning of 2026. The lower oil price level means that US crude oil production is likely to decline significantly next year."

"The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day on average for the year and 400,000 barrels per day compared to the end of this year. The record level is now expected to be reached in December 2025 at 13.57 million barrels per day. Thereafter, production volumes are set to decline steadily."

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