UK: Key economic events ahead – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura present a brief preview of the UK manufacturing and industrial output data that will be published alongside the trade figures later today at 0930GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Nov Trade Balance: The national accounts detail published in December revealed that real exports of goods and services have performed far better over the past two years since sterling began depreciating than had been originally reported. Rather than being at the bottom of the G7 pack, the UK is now, following the revisions, at the top. As for the monthly trade balance, we forecast a similar deficit in November to October (a little wider £10.5bn).”

Nov Industrial Production: Surveys (CBI and PMI) point to continued growth in manufacturing production in the official November report. While we forecast a further rise in manufacturing output, we should highlight the risk of a fall (the series can be volatile) after a string of six monthly increases between May and October.”