Time has run out

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

S&P 500 rebounded Friday as called, right off the opening bell as expected. Breadth improved – have the bulls any reason to rejoice? Energy, tech and some real estate advancing, can that be enough? What about that weakness into the closing bell and VIX retreat? I talked bonds and dollar for directional clues in equities – they‘re a bit at odds as riskier bonds aren‘t rallying, but neither is the dollar even if rate cut odds went to less than a coin toss for Dec FOMC (significantly down from being baked in the cake only a monht ago).

Sure Waller wanted to cut in Jul, and the Fed is behind the curve in rate cutting as inflation isn‘t really raging following tariffs – and given the macroeconomic signs and the shape of the consumer or the job market, the Fed wouldn‘t be ill advised to support the economy, jobs and real estate… while looking the other way as regards inflation that didn‘t turn into a problem yet. Fed isn‘t yet capitulating to a dire necessity to cut.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.