The S&P500 continues to follow mid-term election year seasonality

In our update from December 19 last year, we introduced mid-term election-year seasonality, showing an important peak would be due around April 18. See Figure 1 below. A seasonality chart is based on closing prices and portrays relative price movement. E.g., a new high in the seasonality chart can be a secondary high in the markets. Besides, it continues to align well with the current market. Or is it the other way around?

Namely, a low was due around March 7, a high around March 11, another low around March 13, and a larger peak around March 20. We used “around” because these dates are approximately +/- 5 trading days. So far, the index bottomed on a closing basis on March 6, peaked on March 9, and is now declining today, March 13. An up day today or early next week would confirm the trend change.

Figure 1. Average seasonal pattern during mid-term election years for the SPX since 1928

So far, so good, but how has the track record been year-to-date? We’ve tabulated the most important highs and lows for seasonality and compared them with this year's. See Table 1 below.

Table 1: YTD comparison between seasonality and actual market highs and lows

It follows that out of the eleven most important highs and lows during mid-term election years, the current market peaked and bottomed out eight times at almost the exact same date. Three times it missed the mark. Thus far, the index has followed mid-term election-year seasonality well (73% of the time).

Although, of course, past performance is no guarantee for future results, it does suggest that we should continue to expect the market to follow this path going forward: a bottom around today, a rally to approximately March 20, then two weeks of decline, followed by a final rally into the April 18 high. As illustrated using our Elliott Wave count in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Short-term Elliott wave count for the SPX since October 2025

Since December, when we introduced this seasonality, the market has responded quite well. Therefore, moving forward, we must assume it will continue. However, we stay vigilant and will—as always—monitor the price action to identify any deviations: anticipate, observe, and adjust if needed.