The IPO of the century: SpaceX and what we can learn from XTB clients

The SpaceX IPO is taking place this week. After weeks of hype and build up, and reports that the IPO is oversubscribed, SpaceX is likely to be valued at more than $1.7 trillion. This is an unusual IPO for many reasons: firstly, the IPO price was set at $135 per share, and not within a range. Secondly, Elon Musk publicly negotiated down fees with the biggest investment banks who are handling the listing, and thirdly, the allocation of stocks to the retail market is much larger than usual, at 30%, compared to the norm of 5-10%.

The growing importance of the retail trading community

The latter point is worth noting. Why has Musk decided to offer 30% of the $80bn shares on offer this week to the retail community? The most likely answer is to cash in on Musk’s cult-like status with some retail investors. However, the retail trading market is made up of more than just Elon Musk’s fan club. The retail trading community contributes 20-30% of daily volume in major developed markets like the UK and the US. Retail trading demand hit a record in early 2026, and by the end of this year, total monthly volume across global brokers is set to reach $37 trillion.

Retail traders are no longer a niche, meme stock-obsessed corner of global financial markets. They are a powerful force that are structurally important, for example, they have helped to stabilize markets during periods of intense volatility in recent years.

XTB clients and the SpaceX IPO: a niche interest that the majority are not buying into

Due to the growth of the retail trader, we decided to dig into XTB’s customer interest in the upcoming SpaceX IPO. The results were interesting. Far from jumping on the SpaceX bandwagon, our research across 14 XTB branches in Europe and Asia found a muted response to this IPO. The key findings are:

• Total customer interest was in the low hundreds, with very few clients asking about the SpaceX IPO and pre-IPO access to the stock, which XTB does not offer.
• Romania had the largest number of enquiries at 178, followed by France with 160.
• In Romania, only 115 customers said that they were very interested in the IPO or eager to invest, and the majority were driven by admiration for Elon Musk.
• In Germany, 90 clients  were eager to invest in SpaceX.
• In Slovakia, the majority of XTB clients who enquired about the SpaceX IPO were interested in when XTB would offer a SpaceX CFD to short the stock.

This data suggests that XTB clients are not buying into the hype of SpaceX’s IPO, and only a tiny fraction of our 2.5 million client base are interested in buying the stock at the IPO price. This could be for several reasons, firstly, we are not offering the IPO, you can trade SpaceX with XTB once it lists on the Nasdaq on 12^th June. Secondly, if SpaceX does reach a $1.7 trillion valuation, then it will dominate the Nasdaq, which is a very popular product with XTB clients, so they will get indirect exposure to SpaceX without having to directly own the stock. However, it still suggests that not all corners of the retail trading market are enthusiastic about Musk’s latest endeavor.

There are concerns that SpaceX’s stratospheric valuation is too bullish. It is priced at 56 times future revenues, which is a huge multiple. 2025 revenue came in at $18.67bn, up a third on 2024, but the company still posted a loss last year of $4.94bn. This year, total revenue is expected to come in at $25bn, a decent jump on 2025, but it is revenue forecasts further in the future that are problematic.

Are analysts too bullish on SpaceX revenue projections?

Goldman Sachs’ IPO prospectus paints an exceptionally bullish picture of SpaceX’s revenue potential. It is projecting $474bn of revenue in 2030, with $322bn coming from SpaceX’s AI business. This includes its A11 satellite, which is the first generation of SpaceX’s orbital AI compute platform. SpaceX unveiled its flying supercomputer/ mega data centre earlier this week, it is solar powered and is designed to run AI workloads from space.

The data centres of the sky

Musk is predicting that by 2031, SpaceX will launch more AI compute satellites into space than the total number of data centres on Earth. In theory, this makes sense: on the ground, data centres are high intensity users of electricity and water, they are disrupted by planning opposition and growing unrest about how they will push up utility costs. SpaceX can sidestep these concerns by launching data centres into orbit.

The problem is that these prototypes are not expected to launch until next year, and the current valuation expects a significant shift of compute capability to space from 2028. This is highly speculative, and these forecasts could be worthless if there are any production delays, or if the technology does not work. SpaceX is asking investors to buy into an idea, rather than a fully formed business, and not all retail traders are interested.

Healthy skepticism of Musk’s ideas

When the facts are laid out, is it any wonder that we have found that XTB clients are sitting on the sidelines, instead of diving headlong into the SpaceX hype using their own hard-earned capital?

Retail traders are showing their sophistication when it comes to stepping back from  this IPO and waiting to see how it lands. The SpaceX IPO may be the biggest listing the world has ever seen, but at XTB, our clients are showing some healthy skepticism of Elon Musk’s ambitions.