The crypto market is rebounding: BTC needs $67K to reverse course

Market overview

The crypto market is continuing its recovery, which coincided with the start of the calendar month. Market capitalisation has reached $2.14T, up from a low of $2.02T at the start of 1 July. Buying is taking place across the board. Amongst the individual performers over the last 24 hours, the leaders were Uniswap (+13.1%), SushiSwap (+6.8%) and Cardano (+6.5%), while Hedera (-1.9%) and IOTA (-1.7%) lost ground. The crypto market is edging up from below its 200-week moving average. However, we stand by our view that a dip below, or even an approach to, this line reflects a bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which often lasts for weeks or months. On the other hand, we have not seen any significant historical falls below this curve, so it would be overly pessimistic, in our view, to expect a pullback to $1T, the starting point of the last bull market in 2023. 

Bitcoin rose above $62K at one point on Thursday but retreated to $61.6K amid low trading activity due to the US weekend. On daily timeframes, the RSI has moved out of oversold territory and formed a bullish divergence with the price, indicating that selling momentum is waning and laying the groundwork for a rebound. However, it would only be reasonable to speak of a fundamental reversal of the downtrend if the price consolidates above the $67–68K range, where the local highs from June, the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement level of the May–June decline are concentrated. 

News background

CryptoQuant points to a growing proportion of investors in the red. Losses are reaching record levels, suggesting that the bottom is near.

The collapse in Strategy shares, although painful, is a necessary part of the market cycle, signalling that Bitcoin is approaching its bottom, said Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. In his view, a new BTC bull market could begin this autumn.

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet purchased a further 2,823 bitcoins in the second quarter, according to its quarterly report. The company’s total holdings have reached 43,000 BTC, making it the third-largest corporate holder of the leading cryptocurrency.

According to Arkham Intelligence, brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss transferred Bitcoin and Ethereum totalling around $67 million to hot wallets on their crypto exchange, Gemini. Previously, such transactions were followed by cryptocurrency sales.  

Summary: The crypto market is recovering across the board, but for BTC to confirm a reversal, it needs to consolidate above $67–68K.