The crypto market has broken out of its consolidation

Market overview

The cryptocurrency market has risen by almost 8% over the past 24 hours to $2.37T, reaching its highest level since early June. The initial momentum came on the back of news that the US Treasury was supporting the debt market. This relatively small but timely move signalled that the government is monitoring the situation in the debt markets, spurring demand for risk assets. The rally was then fuelled by a wave of short-covering, following weeks of extremely narrow trading.

Bitcoin reached $70K, posting a 9% rally over 8 hours during the US trading session. As the new day began, the leading cryptocurrency retreated slightly to $69.6K. On Monday, BTC consolidated above the 50-day moving average, and by Wednesday, it had already tested the 200-day MA. As expected, the market’s long-compressed spring snapped back, catching those who had been range-trading and those who had been building short positions on the rise off guard. If Bitcoin does not quickly lose its recent gains, it will be a significant sign that a bull market has begun, much like in October 2023 or March 2020.

Ethereum recorded an even more impressive breakout, showing an 18% gain over 24 hours at its peak. Having risen to $2.25K, the second-largest cryptocurrency is trading near its April–May highs, having broken above its 200-day moving average and away from a long-term support line that has risen from around $1.75K to $1.9K over the past 8 months. The next significant level where the coin may face resistance to further gains appears to be the $2.5K–$2.8K range.  

News background

Bitcoin whales have resumed buying. According to CryptoQuant, over the past 60 days, large holders have acquired around 43,000 BTC, worth approximately $2.75 billion. Medium-sized holders have also begun actively buying the asset.

The leading cryptocurrency may be nearing the end of its bearish phase, as on-chain metrics show the first signs of a recovery in spot demand, CryptoQuant notes.

Two out of the three conditions necessary for a full-fledged recovery of BTC have already been met, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate have improved, and financial conditions remain relatively accommodative. However, there has not yet been a capital outflow from traditional markets into cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is showing signs of being in the late stages of a downtrend, but it is still too early to say that a bottom has been formed, according to VanEck’s assessment based on an analysis of 12 indicators.

BlackRock maintains a positive view on the role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios following a fall of more than 50% from its October high. Analysts attributed the sell-off to deleveraging and capital reallocation, rather than a fundamental change in the investment case for the leading cryptocurrency.

The US SEC has unveiled new rules for the crypto market. The draft, titled ‘Regulation Crypto Assets’, simplifies the raising of capital via tokens, circumventing the restrictions of securities legislation.  

Summary: The crypto market has surged on the back of strong demand and short-covering: BTC is testing the 200-day MA, while ETH has broken through key levels.