Taiwan: AI boom sustains trade surplus – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists, led by Dr. Henry Hao and colleagues, note Taiwan’s August trade surplus hit a record USD22.3bn, driven by strong AI-related exports. Electronics and semiconductor shipments surged, lifting overall exports and imports. Authorities expect export momentum to stay strong in H2, though the economy remains heavily reliant on AI-driven electronics, leaving growth exposed to any slowdown in global AI investment.

Record surplus driven by AI electronics

"August trade surplus surprised on the upside, widening to a record USD22.3bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD19.9bn) vs USD17.2bn in July. Year-to-date, the surplus has risen 57.6% to USD136.9bn, supported by robust AI-related export growth."

"Exports jumped 41.0% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 34.7%) vs 32.9% in July, driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductors and other AI-related products, alongside higher memory-chip prices. It hit a record monthly high of USD82.4bn."

"Growth was more subdued outside the electronics sector. Plastic exports fell 1.1% yoy vs +3.8% in July, while transport equipment exports rose 2.3% vs -0.7% previously. By contrast, electronic-component exports surged 58.0%, while information, communication and audiovisual products rose 41.8%. Together, these two categories accounted for 78.7% of total exports in the first eight months."

"Imports also rose more than expected by 44.3% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 40.1%) vs 37.4% in July. Technology-related imports remained particularly strong, reflecting robust demand for intermediate inputs and equipment associated with the AI supply chain and export production. Machinery and electrical equipment imports surged 60.1% vs 55.8% previously. Additionally, imports also gained on higher global commodity prices with crude oil imports jumping 55.8% vs 15.5% in July on renewed tensions in the Middle East."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)