S&P 500 Index: Scope for further near-term consolidation, but with support at 4016/09 holding – Credit Suisse

The rally in the S&P 500 finally stalled at 4195 following the strong payroll report and a setback is underway. The index is expected to see further near-term consolidation but with weakness still viewed as corrective for now, in the opinion of analysts at Credit Suisse.

S&P 500 to see an eventual test of 4312/26

“With daily MACD threatening to cross lower, we see scope for further near-term weakness, but our bias, for now at least, remains to view this as a temporary pullback.”

“Support is seen next at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late December low at 4031 and then more importantly at the back of the broken medium-term downtrend and price support at 4016/09, with better buyers expected to show here. We suspect we need to see a move below 3886 to make the argument that we may have seen a more important peak.” 

“Resistance is seen at 4112/15 initially, with a move above 4154/56 needed to clear the way for a retest of 4195/4203. An eventual break above here should see a test of the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 fall and summer 2022 high at 4312/26.”