S&P 500 futures: New York open hinges on acceptance beyond the pivot gates

London built a balanced TPO map with value centred near the POC. The first New York retest should confirm whether ES migrates higher toward the upper range or rotates back into the lower structure.

ES TPO desk report (Feb 11)

London mid-session – New York transition

Macro overlay (kept tight, chart-first)

The index tape is still trading like a “wait-and-see” market—headline sensitivity to rates/yields, selective earnings-driven dispersion, and a general hesitation to press risk hard ahead of key U.S. catalysts. In that backdrop, balanced profiles tend to behave like balance: rotation around value persists until New York proves acceptance outside the gates. Use the macro as context, but let the profile confirm the move.

Where we are now

At the time of print, ES is rotating inside the pivot band, with trade contained between 6,979.50 (upper gate) and 6,958 (lower gate). The POC is developing around ~6,975, and cumulative delta is in positive territory, which keeps the tape constructive — but the profile remains balanced until New York forces acceptance outside the band.

Today’s broader map

• Top of map: ~7,010.25.
• Bottom of map: ~6,936.50.
• Gate to the upside: 6,979.50.
• Gate to the downside: 6,958.
• POC / value gravity: ~6,975.

This is a clean setup: value is centred, and the New York open is likely to decide whether the session remains rotation around the POC or transitions into trend development via acceptance outside the gates.

Session type: Rotation until proven otherwise

The current profile reads balanced/rotational: price continues to revisit value, and the POC acts as a magnet. The key tell into New York is whether price:

• keeps snapping back toward the POC (rotation stays in control), or
• leaves the POC behind and builds time outside the gates (value migration/acceptance).

Acceptance rules (the only thing that matters at the open)

• Acceptance = time + follow-through (multiple prints beyond the gate, then a retest that holds)
• Rejection = spike + snap back (quick break, then failure to hold and price returns into value)

Order-flow note: How to treat delta today

Positive delta is supportive, but it needs price progress to matter.

• If delta stays positive without price holding above the upper gate, that often signals absorption (buying being met).
• If delta stays positive and price holds outside the band, that’s initiative and usually travels further.

Scenarios for the New York open

1) Upside acceptance – Attempt toward the upper map

Trigger: Hold above 6,979.50 and keep trade supported above the POC zone.
Read: Buyers are pulling value upward and reducing rotation back into the middle.
Path: If acceptance builds, the map opens room toward the 7,010 area (top of the day structure).

Confirmations to watch:

• Retests hold above 6,979.50
• POC/value begins migrating higher
• Delta remains constructive with price progress

2) Rotation failure – Downside probe

Trigger: Failure to hold 6,979.50, followed by a slip back through value and loss of 6,958.
Read: Balance resolves lower, and the market starts accepting below the band.
Path: A break-and-hold under 6,958 puts the 6,936.50 lower range in play.

Confirmations to watch:

• Rejections near the upper gate (pushes that don’t stick)
• Value refuses to migrate higher despite positive delta (absorption)
• Clear acceptance building below 6,958

3) Open drive whipsaw (common in balanced profiles)

If New York opens with a fast push through a gate, don’t chase the first candle. Balanced maps often produce a sweep, then rotation straight back through value. Let the market show whether it can hold the level on the first retest.

New York checklist (first 5–15 minutes)

1. Where is the open relative to 6,979.50 and 6,958?
2. Does price build time outside the band or snap back into it?
3. Does the POC (~6,975) keep pulling trade back (rotation), or get left behind (trend)?
4. Is delta supportive with movement, or supportive without movement (absorption)?

Execution focus

The highest-quality entry is usually not the first break, but the first retest after acceptance outside the band. If the open stays inside the pivot range and keeps rotating through the POC, the best trade is often patience until one gate holds with time.

Desk summary

6,979.50 and 6,958 are the decision gates.

• Above 6,979.50: the market is attempting to lift value and work toward the 7,010 region.
• Below 6,958: downside acceptance opens the path toward 6,936.50.
  Until acceptance shows, treat this as a rotation around the POC (~6,975) and let New York confirm the next phase.

Structure defines context; price reveals response.