Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD wavers below $77.00 with Iran and the Fed in focus
- Silver is trading sideways, ranging between $75.00 and $77.00.
- Investors hold a cautious mood, awaiting news from the US-Iran conflict.
- The Fed's monetary policy and Chairman Powell's fate are likely to move markets this week.
Silver (XAG/USD) keeps trading within a roughly $2 range, between $75 and $77 on Monday, amid a cautious market mood, as investors await further developments in the US-Iran peace negotiations and interest rate decisions by some of the world’s major central banks.
A report by Axios affirmed earlier on Monday that Iran has sent a new peace proposal to the US that would offer the end of the hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving nuclear negotiations for a later stage. This is keeping investors hopeful that a negotiated outcome is still possible, despite the cancellation of the second round of peace talks, which were expected to resume over the weekend.
The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, remains blocked, which keeps Crude prices near $100 per barrel and feeds concerns about global stagflation. This holds the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) downside attempts limited and precious metals’ rallies in check.
Later this week, the focus will shift to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold, but investors will be eager to know the bank’s monetary policy plans, as the higher inflationary levels have prompted investors to dial back monetary easing hopes for this year.
The market will also be very attentive to Chairman Jerome Powell’s plans. Powell's term ends in May, and former Governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated to replace him next month. Powell, however, holds a Governor chair until 2028, but US President Donald Trump has threatened to fire him if he does not exit the bank. There is quite a lot to clarify at the central bank, and the US Dollar might react with sharp volatility.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
