Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tests 100-day SMA as rally extends
- XAG/USD rises over 1.70%, extending short-term bullish momentum.
- 100-day SMA near $68.51 becomes immediate upside test.
- Break above $70.00 exposes 200-day SMA and $75.00.
Silver price extended its gains on Thursday, up more than 1.70%, even as US yields recovered some ground and then resumed their rise following the US Treasury bond buyback announcement. The XAG/USD trades at $68.18 at the time of writing.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The uptrend remains intact in the short-term, with the white metal approaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.51. Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is above its 50-neutral level and approaching overbought territory.
To cement the bullish bias, XAG/USD must reclaim the 100-day SMA. Once done, the next resistance is the $70.00 milestone, ahead of the 200-day SMA, which is seen as the next ceiling level at $71.97. If buyers clear that level, the psychologically significant $75.00 level becomes the next area of interest.
On the flip side, the XAG/USD first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $65.64. Below, the next support is the August 19 swing low of $62.19, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.35.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
