Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD drops over 2% on high US yields, hovers near $32.00
- XAG/USD pressured by higher US Treasury yields and growing belief Fed will hold rates steady.
- Price consolidates between $32.00 support and $32.73 resistance; momentum favors bears with RSI tilting lower.
- Break below 100-day SMA at $31.91 opens path to $31.30 and $31.00; upside capped by $33.00 and $33.68.
Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver price is set to consolidate within the $32.00 – $33.00 range, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73 and on the downside by the 100-day SMA at $31.91.
From a momentum standpoint, sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays. However, price action dictates that bears must clear the $32.00 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA to aim for lower prices. In that outcome, XAG/USD's next support would be the 200-day SMA at $31.30. A breach of the latter will expose the $31.00 figure, followed by the latest cycle low seen at $28.33, the April 7 low.
Conversely, if XAG/USD clears the 50-day SMA, the grey metal would be poised to test $33.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 24 swing high at $33.68 ahead of the $34.00 figure.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
