Silver Price Forecast: US Dollar rebound pressures XAG/USD ahead of US jobs report

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower at around $60.95 on Thursday at the time of press, down 1.73% on the day. The precious metal is facing profit-taking as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) advancing about 0.30% to trade near the psychological 100.00 level.

The stronger US Dollar reduces Silver's appeal for holders of other currencies. At the same time, safe-haven flows continue to support the Greenback as investors monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite reports that Iran and Oman are moving closer to a temporary agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors also remain focused on developments in the Oil market. Hopes that supply disruptions could ease continue to support expectations of lower Oil prices, a scenario that would help contain global inflation pressures and reduce the likelihood of monetary tightening by major central banks.

Market attention is now turning to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Following mixed labor market indicators earlier this week, including a weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report, the official employment figures are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path as investors continue to reassess the outlook for interest rates.

Traders will also closely monitor the reaction in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar following the NFP release, as both remain the main short-term drivers for Silver prices.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $60.94, retaining a mildly neutral-to-bearish tone as the metal holds above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $59.76 and the 200-period SMA at $58.88, yet remains capped by a descending trend-line resistance coming in around $61.59. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 suggests fading upside momentum after the recent pullback, hinting that rallies towards the trend-line could struggle unless buyers regain control.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the previously resistance $60.00 level, with the 100-period SMA at $59.76 and the longer-term 200-period SMA at $58.88 reinforcing a broader demand zone ahead of the more distant horizontal floor at $56.60. On the topside, the downwards-sloping resistance trend line at $61.59 is the first barrier bulls need to clear to ease the current cap on prices and open the way for a more constructive short-term recovery towards the recent high at $62.91.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)