Silver Price Forecast: US Dollar rebound pressures XAG/USD ahead of US jobs report

Silver falls about 1.7% on Thursday, trading near $60.95 as the US Dollar rebounds.
The US Dollar Index rises 0.30% to around 100.00 ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Investors await the US labor market data, which could reshape expectations for Fed monetary policy.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower at around $60.95 on Thursday at the time of press, down 1.73% on the day. The precious metal is facing profit-taking as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) advancing about 0.30% to trade near the psychological 100.00 level.

The stronger US Dollar reduces Silver's appeal for holders of other currencies. At the same time, safe-haven flows continue to support the Greenback as investors monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite reports that Iran and Oman are moving closer to a temporary agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors also remain focused on developments in the Oil market. Hopes that supply disruptions could ease continue to support expectations of lower Oil prices, a scenario that would help contain global inflation pressures and reduce the likelihood of monetary tightening by major central banks.

Market attention is now turning to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Following mixed labor market indicators earlier this week, including a weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report, the official employment figures are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path as investors continue to reassess the outlook for interest rates.

Traders will also closely monitor the reaction in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar following the NFP release, as both remain the main short-term drivers for Silver prices.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $60.94, retaining a mildly neutral-to-bearish tone as the metal holds above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $59.76 and the 200-period SMA at $58.88, yet remains capped by a descending trend-line resistance coming in around $61.59. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 suggests fading upside momentum after the recent pullback, hinting that rallies towards the trend-line could struggle unless buyers regain control.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the previously resistance $60.00 level, with the 100-period SMA at $59.76 and the longer-term 200-period SMA at $58.88 reinforcing a broader demand zone ahead of the more distant horizontal floor at $56.60. On the topside, the downwards-sloping resistance trend line at $61.59 is the first barrier bulls need to clear to ease the current cap on prices and open the way for a more constructive short-term recovery towards the recent high at $62.91.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.