Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD catches a relief bid after middling FOMC minutes

XAG/USD taps a new one-week high after US FOMC minutes land meekly.
Silver spot has an opportunity to extend a near-term rebound.
Downside risks remain as US inflation fears continue to be a thorn in the side of precious metals.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The XAG/USD tapped into a fresh high for the week near $22.14 after the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest meeting minutes release shows the US central bank stuck in the middle, holding steady on rates but seeing several inflation risks in the future.

Spot Silver has seen a moderate recovery and is trading north of $22.00, though XAG/USD still has a lot of ground to recover after tumbling nearly 13% peak-to-trough from September's peak of $23.77.

FOMC minutes: Members agreed rates should stay restrictive for some time

With the Fed's meeting minutes landing with barely a whisper, markets will be turning eyes ahead to Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, where headline CPI inflation is expected to tick down slightly from 3.7% to 3.6% for the annualized period into September.

US annual PPI rises 2.2% in September vs. 1.6% expected

Markets are keeping their appetite on-balance for the time being, but after Wednesday's upside surprise in US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures,additional inflation-based data beats could see market expectations of a Fed rate cut get pushed even further into the future, driving precious metals down against the US Dollar.

XAG/USD Technical Outlook

Silver spot prices are staging a successful rebound from the last swing low into $20.75, but a continued upswing will quickly run into a descending trendline from August's late swing high into $25.00, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits above price action near $23.25.

The 50-day SMA has confirmed a bearish cross of the longer moving average, and the trick for Silver bugs will be to keep a potential bearish downturn in XAG/USD from spiraling out of control and sending spot Silver back into 2023's lows near the $20.00 handle.

XAG/USD Daily Chart

XAG/USD Technical Levels

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price	22.03
Today Daily Change	0.19
Today Daily Change %	0.87
Today daily open	21.84

Trends
Daily SMA20	22.4
Daily SMA50	23.01
Daily SMA100	23.35
Daily SMA200	23.37

Levels
Previous Daily High	21.96
Previous Daily Low	21.63
Previous Weekly High	22.2
Previous Weekly Low	20.68
Previous Monthly High	24.82
Previous Monthly Low	22.12
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	21.76
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	21.83
Daily Pivot Point S1	21.66
Daily Pivot Point S2	21.48
Daily Pivot Point S3	21.34
Daily Pivot Point R1	21.99
Daily Pivot Point R2	22.14
Daily Pivot Point R3	22.31

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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