Maartje Wijffelaars, Senior Economist at Rabobank, notes that the Catalan separatists are likely to win the elections, but might lose their absolute majority.
On Dec 21st, Catalans will go to the ballot box to vote for a new regional government.
The separatists are likely to win the elections, but might lose their absolute majority.
A fresh push towards unilateral independence is unlikely, at least in the coming years.
Nevertheless, while tensions are unlikely to return to levels seen in October, it could take many years before tensions actually recede.
It will be extremely difficult to find a solution for the institutional crisis that is acceptable to both sides. But at the end of the day, we still believe that Catalonia will stay part of Spain with more (fiscal) autonomy.
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