RBNZ: Preemptive hikes and neutral ceiling – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha shifts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) call to start 25 bps hikes in July rather than September, keeping a total of four moves in the profile. Newnaha highlights RBNZ guidance that the OCR is likely to rise at coming meetings, while stressing a weak growth outlook and a more deeply negative output gap. He prefers receiving New Zealand rates on yield sell-offs, viewing the neutral rate near 3.50% as a ceiling.

RBNZ path pulled forward to July

"We retain 4 x 25bps RBNZ hikes in our cash rate profile, but forecast the hike cycle to commence from July and not September as per our prior forecast."

"None of these conditions were broken supporting a hike ahead of the May meeting and the RBNZ would not have had data to categorically show a breach of these conditions by the July meeting to hike then either."

"Nonetheless, the RBNZ yesterday declared acting preemptively to be the more prudent option."

"The Bank's OCR track is consistent with the first 25bps hike in Jul."

"The Bank's estimate of the nominal neutral rate is 3.50% and this should serve as a ceiling on pricing."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD turns positive, targets 1.1450

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances toward the 1.1440 region on Friday, up modestly for the day. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold remains offered, still below $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and navigates below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.