"Progress on lowering inflation has stalled": Fed's Bowman takes aim at Iran war
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said progress on lowering inflation has stalled while discussing the economic outlook and monetary policy in a speech at a conference in Iceland on Friday. Bowman claimed that the longer the Iran war continues, the greater the risks to inflation become.
Key takeaways:
Progress on lowering inflation has stalled.
The US economy has remained resilient despite signs of fragility in the labor market.
It is still too early to gauge the full impact of the Middle East war on the economy.
The longer the Middle East war continues, the greater the risks to inflation.
An extended energy shock would put upward pressure on inflation later this year.
She would consider a shift in the policy outlook if war-driven inflation pressure broadens.
The Fed can look through an energy shock if it maintains credibility on monetary policy.
Reacting to a temporary energy shock could unnecessarily weigh on the economy.
The current moderately restrictive policy stance aims to support employment while lowering inflation.
It was appropriate for the Fed to maintain an easing bias in the April 29 policy statement.
She wants more clarity on the war's impact before reassessing the outlook.
Bowman is optimistic that an end to the conflict will help ease energy prices.”
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Agustin Wazne
FXStreet
Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.
