Oil: Tight gas outlook and conflict risks support prices – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Oil remains a key market barometer as the Iran war disrupts supply, with Brent up sharply and the International Energy Agency warning that the global natural gas market will stay tight for at least two more years. The conflict has removed significant oil and LNG capacity, delaying new LNG expansion and reinforcing a prolonged period of constrained energy markets.

Iran conflict and IEA gas projections

"Oil remains the barometer, but fears of any U.S./Iran weekend escalation are looked through as the narrative continues to see a deal in the making."

"The global natural gas market is expected to remain tight for at least two more years as the Iran war continues to disrupt supply and delay the anticipated LNG expansion, says the International Energy Agency."

"The conflict has effectively removed around one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply, while damage to Qatari facilities has reduced liquefaction capacity and could take years to repair, pushing back the impact of new supply growth led by the U.S."

"The IEA estimates a cumulative shortfall of around 120 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030, reinforcing a prolonged period of tight market conditions."

"In response, gas demand has softened in key importing regions, particularly in Asia, as higher prices and policy measures drive fuel switching and reductions in consumption."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)