NZIER Shadow Board recommends RBNZ to keep OCR steady in July

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

According to the latest recommendation by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) on Monday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% when it meets this Wednesday for its monetary policy decision.

Key takeaways

“Most Shadow Board members recommend the Reserve Bank should keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50 percent in the upcoming July Monetary Policy Review.”

“While inflation pressures are still high and the labor market remains strong, the slowing in demand and economic activity and expectations for previous OCR increases to work their way through the New Zealand economy warrant a hold on further tightening.”

“However, one member recommended a 25-basis point increase, reflecting the view that inflation is sticky.”

Market reaction

At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading at around 0.6200, down 0.10% on the day.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.6950 amid risk aversion

AUD/USD consolidates in the Asian session on Thursday, trading just above 0.6950 as traders assess developments in the Middle East crisis. The Pentagon reportedly ordered readiness for potential strikes against Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which, along with hawkish FOMC Minutes and elevated US bond yields, will likely keep the US Dollar underpinned at the expense of the pair.

USD/JPY slips below 158.00 as USD retreats

USD/JPY returns to the red below 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar eases from near an 18-month high on profit taking, ignoring Wednesday's hawkish FOMC Minutes and the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, adding to the pair's pullback.

Gold picks up pace; focus is back to $4,150

Gold regains some composure and climbs back to the vicinity $4,150 mark per troy ounce amid decent gains on Thursday. The yellow metal’s recovery follows some loss of momentum in the US Dollar strength and a mild drop in US Treasury yields in the 10y-30y segment.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend sell-off amid ETF outflows

Bitcoin (BTC) extends its decline below $83,000 on Thursday as heightened selling pressure weighs on the market. Leading altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), mirror the sector-wide pullback, with ETH dipping under $2,600 and XRP challenging support at $1.40.

ECB expected to pause in October before hiking rates in December – Reuters poll

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in October before delivering another increase in December, according to a Reuters poll conducted October 5-8. The survey shows that 70 of 73 economists expect the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29, while 64 of 73 anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) hike in December.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.